Monthly diffusion indices from the Federal Reserve Banks of Philadelphia and New York. Readings above 0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity; below 0 indicate contraction. These are among the earliest leading indicators published each month and closely track dry van and flatbed freight demand.
Philly Fed signal
expanding strongly
Reading vs 0-line
Source: TruckRadar composite
These are monthly surveys of manufacturers conducted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Philadelphia and New York. They produce diffusion indices: readings above 0 indicate expanding manufacturing activity, below 0 indicate contraction. They are among the earliest monthly manufacturing data points published each month and are closely watched by freight and logistics markets.
A manufacturing diffusion index crossing above 0 typically precedes a three-to-six-month rise in dry van and flatbed tonnage, as producers rebuild inventory and ship more finished goods. Crossing below 0 anticipates a corresponding softening in goods freight demand. Both surveys are leading indicators because they reflect new orders, hiring intentions, and shipment expectations.
The ISM Manufacturing PMI (which uses 50 as the neutral line) is the most widely cited manufacturing survey, but its data is not available via FRED. The Philadelphia Fed and Empire State surveys use 0 as the neutral line and cover their respective Federal Reserve districts. Together they provide a reliable leading read on the national manufacturing cycle ahead of the monthly ISM release.
The Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey is published on the third Thursday of each month for that month's conditions. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is released on the fifteenth of each month (or the prior business day). Both are among the first regional manufacturing data points available in a given month.
Rising readings through 0 signal improving freight demand, firming used truck values, and a good moment to ramp inventory acquisition. Declining readings through 0 warn of soft freight, rising days-on-lot, and the need to tighten acquisition budgets. Two consecutive months in one direction is typically enough to act on.
As of 2026-04-01, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index reads +26.7, signaling manufacturing activity is expanding strongly. The Empire State index reads +11 (expanding). These are diffusion indices: above 0 equals expansion, below 0 contraction. Truck dealers use manufacturing indices crossing above 0 as a cue to lean into inventory acquisition because dry van and flatbed tonnage typically rise within 90 days. Fleet managers read sustained declines below 0 as a warning to extend trade cycles and trim driver overtime.